One Billion Americans

August 3, 2020
In this provocative treatise, Vox cofounder Yglesias (Heads in the Sand) argues that a large-scale population increase brought about by higher birth rates and relaxed immigration policies will improve America’s overall wealth, health, happiness, and productivity. He explains that the country’s current population decline makes it difficult to keep pace with China economically; examines how child-rearing costs have prevented people from having as many children as they want to (or any at all); and weighs options for alleviating those costs, including universal child subsidies and more liberal parental leave policies. Meanwhile, immigration benefits American society, according to Yglesias, by contributing new ideas and technologies and, in some cases, lowering health care costs. An increased population, he writes, could help to revitalize cities and towns that have suffered declines in recent years, such as Baltimore, Cleveland, and Detroit, and spur improvements in education, transportation, and housing. Though he points out that promising alternative energy solutions are already available or in the works, and that the U.S. “does not hold the fate of global atmospheric conditions solely in its hands,” Yglesias’s attempt to persuade environmentalists concerned that more people means more emissions isn’t entirely convincing. Still, his views on immigration and urban renewal are well researched and convincing. This optimistic call to action is worth considering.

Starred review from July 15, 2020
An argument that blends demography, economics, and politics to suggest a way to maintain America's great-power status in the 21st century. It's enough to make a zero population growth advocate faint. Vox co-founder and editor Yglesias proposes that the only way to keep China at bay is to beat the Chinese at their own game, growing a population of 1 billion Americans. But how? One ingredient is a far more liberal immigration policy: "The solution to the illegal immigration crisis is to let more people come legally, not tie ourselves into knots trying to stop the flow." Another ingredient is a massive expansion of the social welfare state to allow for such things as family leave and tax concessions. And what of already overcrowded American cities and their minuscule amounts of affordable housing stock? It's the last matter at which the author's argument really takes off. He offers a well-deliberated critique of housing policies that he does not hesitate to call racist, policies that forbid the construction of multiple-family dwellings in suburban and exurban areas. Yglesias proposes that immigrants be encouraged to live in uncrowded cities in the interior, bringing new vigor to American places that lack cultural or economic life. Still, the author is a celebrant of the metropolis, noting that, for instance, if a given town builds a base to accommodate 30 restaurants, "not only do you get specialization, you get competition--two different burger joints offering a slightly different approach"--as well as "a deeper labor market." However, won't 1 billion people crowd out nature, farms, etc.? In his proposed scenario, the density of the lower 48 states would be 3.5 times lower than England today, resembling France more than overstuffed Holland or Italy. He sees nothing but economic good in population growth. "A bigger country will need a lot of new stuff," he writes. "So will a zero-carbon economy." The thesis is eminently arguable, but the book is packed full of provocative ideas well worth considering.

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